January 21, 2026: 2026 Aquatic Forecast
Greetings,
Without further ado, my predictions for commercial aquatics in 2026. I have no firm data or science to support this conjecture; it's just my insights based on observing what's going on day-to-day. Do with it what you will, or not at all, but definitely hit reply and let me know what you think!
#1: Cold Plunge
I know you're sick of hearing about it, but at the risk of this newsletter being renamed the Cold Plunge Chronicles, cold plunge shows absolutely no sign of abating. I got an Instagram ad for a new facility in downtown Calgary; a CPO registration from a new fitness facility in Edmonton, plus an email from a new wellness business in Northern Alberta installing cold plunge tubs... all within the last three days!
#2: A movement away from "standard" programs & services
We used of think of pool program as (e.g.) "regular swim lessons" vs. "adapted swim lessons" or "public swim" vs "autism/sensory swim." And while I'm not suggesting that certain populations don't need extra services or support, I'm generally seeing a shift away from bifurcating services as standard and non-standard. It's time to recognize that it's just better for business to have a range of programs & services to meet the needs of a wide spectrum of staff and customers.
What could that look like? Pools staying open much later in the evening to serve adult populations who don't work 9-5. Pools open uniform hours 7 days per week - no more shorter operating window on weekends & holidays. Offering programs and services that lose money and are poorly attended, but are attended. Segmenting underserved populations for specific events like adults-only, newcomer, men only (divisive, but there is a need in some religious and cultural communities), etc.
We're not effectively serving all bathers as it is, so I think it's time to step out of line and come up with specific strategies that match your facility and community.
#3: Precise Procurement
As a former municipal pool manager, there were many different rules I had to follow when quoting and awarding any work over $5,000 unless we heard the magic words "unforeseen urgency." Many private sector businesses don't have the same formal processes, but recently I've seen a huge uptick in people researching and asking a lot more questions about provenance when procuring products.
Whether it's buying local; buying Canadian; not buying American (due to tariffs) or Israeli (due to Gaza); whether it's supporting small businesses (no more solo sourcing via Amazon) or legislation-compliant (no servers in the USA), or the basics of paying more attention to reviews and actually checking references, I'm seeing a lot more diligence with following whatever procurement policies each person, work unit or organization has set for themselves.
#4: MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
Just as my US-based colleagues wondered in a meeting this week if a recession is coming, it feels like Canadians have committed to finding (and spending) every last dollar under the couch cushions because spending is up....WAY up.
I don't know if it's the drumbeat of closing facilities causing lifecycling to be reprioritized; people choosing to spend where they live at a time when international relations & travel are precarious; budgets finally matching the reality of price increases over the last few years, but (with some exceptions obviously) poolies are suddenly more prepared than ever to spend more money. Not frivolous money on non-essential items, but measured there's no time like the present spending.
#5: R-E-S-P-E-C-T
This is the most "out there" forecast of them all, but I'm - very slowly - starting to feel the tides are shifting in terms of how people perceive aquatics, and that's starting to include actual respect for the work as a career and profession.
"He thinks it’s about people wanting to get paid to do what they love. “So much of being a [redacted] is wrapped up in showcasing your identity. These are people who are confident enough in who they are to put it out there in the world. That’s what’s infectious,” Rosenblum says. “A lot of kids are into what they’re into. How great would it be if it could be a career — to have the thing they’re most passionate about also provide for them?”
This is a quote about content creators. However, it feels like the movement to make a career out of what you love (content or otherwise) is having a very tiny trickle down effect on aquatics. For once those passionate poolies are not so crazy for doing what they love. Overworked, underpaid, shift work on evenings/weekends/holidays, sweaty, hot, soaking wet, whatever - but it gives many of us a purpose: water safety & drowning prevention or safer pools for all.
You can credit Gen Z for setting work/life boundaries, or the creator economy for making millionaires out of Twitch streamers, but never have I had to justify my work or career less than in 2025, and I truly see that continuing across the board in 2026.
Maybe I'm wrong, but we'll certainly find out together this year. 💙
Someone was asking about inexpensive training opportunities for (aquatic) staff when there's unexpected down time (hello fecal contamination!) and CCOHS.ca has many free, high-quality classes and even more in the $19-$65 price range. Further discounts are available in bulk purchasing.
Their pricing for Workplace Hazardous Materials Information Systems (WHMIS) is still the same $19.95 it was when I was last a pool manager in 2018!
I will be speaking at the inaugural Women's Forum at the Southwest Pool & Spa Show in San Antonio, Texas next month. My session is entitled "Commercial Use of Residential Pools."
If you've followed my work for any length of time, especially on Facebook, you know I have strong opinions about private (residential) pool rentals, including the companies that promote them. I'm thrilled the organizing committee is allowing me to speak on this urgent and important topic. Don't worry if you can't attend: the session is not exclusive, so I'll be recording it for our YouTube channel immediately after the live session.
In the process of developing the presentation, I was happy to discover this recent non-binding position statement from the Province of British Columbia: Short-term private residential pool rental.
Our Certified Pool Operator (CPO) class next week is sold out. Registration for the February 23 - 26 Zoom class is ongoing. We also have a quarterly CPO Fusion class coming up on Friday, March 6. This is a great option for people who want to work through the first eight hours of content via the Pool Operator Primer (POP) modules at their own pace or can't take 16 hours out of their existing schedule.
It's a slow news week, so many of these articles are less "meaty" than what I would normally include.
3-Year-Old Girl Drowns in Kendale Lakes Pool at Short-Term Rental
Attleboro rec department offers residents chance for free lifeguard certification
It's too bad they're limiting it to eight spots.
Lawsuit claims Maine hotel pool sickened many children due to unaddressed violations
Family settles lawsuit with swim club over drowning death
That was very fast.
Boomers are staying in the job market as Gen Z struggles to break through
Not aquatic-specific, but very on trend for multi-generational workplaces.
‘I’ve never felt such a skin-zinging feeling of being alive’: my year of swimming in Nordic seas
Those with special needs learn lifesaving water skills through local YMCA program
Naples family sues tech giant after toddler’s near-drowning
I don't agree with the premise that a door alarm should be solely responsible for drowning prevention (we need layers of protection!), but this will be an interesting case to watch.
Inside New York City’s Sauna Wars: The Real Heated Rivalry Is at the Bathhouse
Inside One of the Largest Water Parks in the World
This park has always been on my bucket list, and Julian & Luka from Tube Rides (Germans) have said it does live up to the hype!
Warm weather brings increased risk of amoebic meningitis
Sun-inspired sculpture on display at swimming pool
Syrian swimmer Sarah Mardini cleared by Greek court over migrant rescues
Thank you for being here with me today!💙
Katie Crysdale
Lakeview Aquatic Consultants Ltd.